Can South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa survive the ANC’s election setback

The governing party must form a coalition government but some opposition parties want the president out of the picture first.

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With nearly all votes counted, the ANC has won about 40 percent of the mandate, followed by the principal opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, with 21 percent. In third place is the big success story of the election: Former President Jacob Zuma’s uMKhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, which has ravaged the ANC’s core voting base, looks poised to form the government in KwaZulu Natal province, and could prove critical in determining whether the ANC forms the next government under Ramaphosa. The MK party has won almost 15 percent of the national vote, and 45 percent of the vote in KwaZulu Natal, Zuma’s home province.( )

Already, the MK, whose senior leadership — including Zuma himself — consists of many politicians with ANC roots, has ruled out a deal with the governing party unless it sacks Ramaphosa first. After leading the ANC to its worst-ever electoral performance, Ramaphosa will face intense pressure to stand aside, said analysts.( )

“They’ve lost the majority and they’ve lost it badly,” said Richard Calland, Africa director at the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership. “That represents a very significant defeat.”

The ANC is still South Africa’s largest political formation, and it is almost impossible for the next government to be formed without the party, so it will be in a position to drive coalition negotiations, said Callard. “The question is whether Ramaphosa will lead those negotiations or whether he will resign or be ousted in the very short term.”( )

Those questions are magnified by the limited options that Ramaphosa and the ANC face, as they try to pull together a coalition that can rule.

Zuma vs Ramaphosa: A bitter history

If the ANC and the MK were to team up, they would have a clear majority in parliament. ANC support would also help the MK get across the halfway mark in KwaZulu Natal, giving Zuma’s party a chance to form a government on its very first try: The party was only formed late last year.( )

Yet, that’s easier said than done, according to analysts.READ MORE.....

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